驾驶决策的特征及其影响因素研究   

辽宁师范大学 陈晓晨

摘要：驾驶决策被认为是驾驶员对不同交通场景进行判断，并作出选择，产生驾驶行为的过程。驾驶决策的研究起源于人因工程学，以计算机为辅助工具，采用人机交互的方式帮助驾驶员解决问题；随着认知心理学的发展，驾驶决策的研究逐步向心理学领域迈进，并逐渐成为心理学研究者关注的焦点，在研究过程中，研究者开始强调驾驶员的心理因素与驾驶决策的关系，以及其对驾驶决策的影响作用，并探讨了如何采用心理学的方法帮助驾驶员改善决策。

本研究主要通过以下四个研究来探讨驾驶决策的特征及其影响因素：

研究一，驾驶员在爱荷华赌博任务中的决策特征分析。采用经典的爱荷华赌博任务，分析我国驾驶员的决策特征。 IGT 不同的评分标准，能够反映出驾驶员在决策过程中的风险倾向，以及在决策过程中的影响驾驶员选牌时的前后一致性的原因。研究共选取80 名不同驾龄与性别的驾驶员参加 IGT 实验，通过分析驾驶员在 IGT 中对有利纸牌和不利纸牌的得分比较，以及驾驶员在不同区组中的得分比较，分析我国驾驶员的决策特征。

研究二，一般决策风格量表的修订。在中引文互译、文字分析及专家评定的基础上，选取 338 名驾驶员对 GDMS 进行信度、效度检验，并对量表的结构进行验证（探索性因素分析，验证性因素分析），确定问卷的可靠性、有效性以及适用性。从而为衡量影响驾驶员决策的影响因素提供便捷的研究工具，为有针对性的开展驾驶决策的研究奠定基础。

研究三，驾驶决策的影响因素分析。在综述以往研究的基础上，将影响驾驶决策的因素分为风险感知、情绪状态与决策风格。采用眼动技术，探讨了风险感知对驾驶决策的影响，采用情绪状态量表与修订后的一般决策风格量表，探讨了情绪状态与决策风格各自对驾驶策略的影响。并通过 Logistic 回归模型的建立，重点分析风险感知、情绪状态与决策风格对驾驶决策的影响作用，通过建立有调节的中介变量以及有中介的调节变量模型，力图综合揭示驾驶决策的影响机制。

研究四，驾决策的改善。研究驾驶决策的最终目的，是为了改善驾驶员在行车过程中表现出的不良驾驶行为。通过对前三个研究的分析，自编“驾驶员风险感知情景问卷”；并应用此问卷对不同决策类型的驾驶员进行培训，为改善驾驶决策提供心理学依据，探索本研究的应用价值。

在对上述研究的分析与讨论基础上，本研究探讨了我国驾驶员驾驶决策的特征、衡量驾驶决策的有效工具、驾驶决策的影响因素、驾驶决策改善等问题，并得出以下结论：

1 我国驾驶员的驾驶决策特征随着性别与驾龄的变化而表现不同；根据驾驶员在IGT 中的得分情况可以发现， 随着驾驶驾龄的增加， 女性在行车过程中做更容易做出规

避风险、 安全的驾驶决策；新手男性在行车过程中做出的决策更加稳定，风险意识较强；而新手女性则更多的受到情绪的影响，对突发的危险刺激反应更为敏感。

2 修订后的一般决策风格量表具有良好的适应性，可以作为衡量驾驶决策影响因素的可靠和有效工具，并将驾驶员的决策风格分为三个维度：理智型、直觉-冲动型与依赖型。

3 风险感知对驾驶决策的预测，主要通过决策任务的难易程度，对风险源的识别时间，以及执行决策结果时所用时间来衡量。对驾驶决策的预测分析表明：

(1) 识别决策问题阶段，对不同风险水平中风险源的识别，规避风险与勇于冒险的驾驶员加工方式一致，在低风险水平任务中，主要采取“启发式策略”；而在高风险水平任务中，主要满足“多属性效用理论”的原则；

(2) 加工决策方案阶段，在低风险水平任务时，规避风险与勇于冒险的驾驶员对风险源关注的时间相一致，信息量的提取与加工时间没有区别；而在高风险水平任务中，规避风险决策类型的老手与新手对风险源信息量的提取与加工时间没有的区别；勇于冒险的新手对风险源信息量的提取和加工时间要长于老手；

(3) 执行决策结果阶段，勇于冒险的驾驶员相对于规避风险的驾驶员，为了避免制动或减速，加工了更多的风险源周围的路况信息，导致勇于冒险的驾驶员执行决策结果的时间长于规避风险决策类型的驾驶员。

(4) 当不考虑任务的风险水平时，对风险源信息加工时间越短，执行决策结果的时间越长，则该驾驶员决策类型是勇于冒险的可能性更大；

(5) 当考虑到驾驶员的性别与驾龄时，驾驶决策更多的受到老手对风险源关注的时间和女性执行决策结果时间的影响。

4 情绪状态对驾驶决策的预测，主要通过积极情绪状态和消极情绪状态来衡量，对驾驶决策的预测分析表明：

(1) 情绪状态量表符合心理学测量理论的要求， 在驾驶员群体中具有良好的适用性，可作为测量驾驶员情绪状态的可靠和有效工具。

(2) 在情绪状态量表中，积极情绪状态得分越高，消极情绪状态得分越低的驾驶员，决策类型是勇于冒险的可能性更大；当考虑到性别与驾龄时，决策类型更多的受到新手的消极情绪状态和女性的积极情绪状态的影响。

5 决策风格对驾驶决策的影响，主要通过理智型、直觉-冲动型来衡量，对驾驶决策的预测分析表明：

在修订后的一般决策风格量表中，理智型维度得分越低，直觉-冲动型维度得分越高，决策类型是勇于冒险的可能性更大；当考虑到性别与驾龄时，决策类型更多的受到新手理智型决策风格和男性直觉-冲动型决策风格的影响；依赖型决策风格对决策类型的预测没有产生影响。

6 考虑到风险感知、情绪状态与决策风格三因素时，驾驶决策的影响机制表现为：风险感知(风险源信息加工时间、执行决策结果时间)在整个模型中处于最基本的环节，情绪状态(积极情绪和消极情绪)随着行车环境或身体状况的变化而不断发生变化，决策风格(理智型、直觉-冲动型)作为稳定的行为方式，在综合当前从风险感知中获得的信息，以及情绪的影响作用下，结合以往类似风险的经验， 影响每个驾驶员驾驶行为的形成。

7 自编的“驾驶员风险感知情景问卷”具有良好的适用性和可靠性，根据驾驶决策加工过程中的三个环节，分别从风险识别、 风险评估以及风险反应三个方面衡量了驾驶员的风险感知水平，能够通过各个维度的得分情况，分析驾驶员的决策特点，是一个简单易行的，用来检验驾驶决策改善效果的评价工具。

8 采用“驾驶员风险感知情景问卷”对驾驶员进行培训可以提高驾驶员的风险识别能力。

综上所述，本研究在分析我国驾驶员决策特征的基础上， 首先， 为衡量驾驶决策的相关因素提供了有效的测量方法与测量工具，其中眼动技术可以用来衡量驾驶员风险感知与决策加工过程； 修订后的一般决策风格量表和情绪状态量表可以用来衡量驾驶员的决策风格与情绪状态特征； 其次， 建立的驾驶决策影响因素模型，从风险感知、情绪状态与决策风格三者之间的中介与调节效应下，更加准确与全面的为预测驾驶决策提供了理论框架，具体重要的理论价值； 第三， 关于驾驶决策的改善，本研究自编的“驾驶员风险感知情境”问卷，不仅可以作为评估驾驶员风险感知的有效工具， 为决策的改善提供了可观察的资料， 同时还能够间接的反应出驾驶员的决策特征，这为今后提高我国驾驶员风险感知能力与决策的改善提供了新的培训视角，具有重要的社会价值意义。

关键词：驾驶员；驾驶决策；风险感知、情绪状态、决策风格、决策改善

The Study of Driving Decision-making on Characteristics and Influencing Factors

Abstract: Driving decision-making is a process where drivers make the right driving choices and behaviors by responding to different traffic situations. It derives from Ergonomics and its inevitable tools are computers. Accordingly, driving-related problems will be solved through the interactive way between human and machine. With the development of Cognitive Psychology, the relevant researches have been connected with psychology and became the centre of traffic psychology in recent years. In the course of studies, the researchers began to emphasize the role that drivers' psychological factors played in driving decision-making, and to explore the mechanism on how it works. The most important thing is to figure out what psychology can do in improving the driving decision-making ability.

This paper explored the feature and influenced factors of decision-making.

Study 1, the feature of decision-making in Iowa Gambling Task. IGT provides different scoring criteria, which can reflect the drivers’ tendency of risk during this task, and the reason that affects the consistency of selecting cards. 80 drivers participated in this task; we analyzed the feature of China’s drivers decision-making by comparing their scores of selecting favorable and adverse cards as well as the scores of different groups.

Study 2, the revision of General Decision-Making Scale. We selected 338 drivers to analyze the reliability and validity of revised GDMS through dual-translations, content analysis and experts’ evaluation, and to confirm its structure verification and application through exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis. The purpose is to provide a convenient tool for studying factors of decision-making, to lay a solid foundation of decision-making.

Study 3, the analysis of factors of decision-making. On the basis of a review of previous studies, the factors that affect driving decisions are divided into risk perception, emotional state and decision-making style. We used eye movement technology to explore the influence of risk perception on decision-making, and then we used emotional state scale and GDMS to explore the influence of emotion and decision-making style on decision-making. Finally, we used Logistic regression model to analyze the impact of risk perception, emotion state and decision-making style, and established models of moderated mediator variables, trying to reveal the mechanism that affected decision-making.

Study 4, driving improvements in decision-making. The ultimate goal of driving decisions are made to improve the driver in driving the process demonstrated danger driving behavior. Through the analysis of the before studies, self, we formed a drivers’ risk perception scenario questionnaire, and applicated this questionnaire for different types of
driver training for decision-making, in order to offer a way to improve their driving decision-making basis for psychological science, and explore the social value of this study.

Based on the former discussion and studies, this paper got some conclusions:

1 The characteristics of China’s drivers’ driving decision-making differs from one to another; with the increasing of driving experience, female drivers tend to make safety decisions, which can help to avoid risk perception; novice male drivers’ risk perception is higher and their decisions are stable; on the contrary, novice female drivers are sensitive to sudden risk and their decisions are affected by emotion.

2 Revision version of General Decision-Making Scale has good adaptability, and it can be used as a reliable and effective tool to measure drivers’ decision-making. GDMS was divided into three dimensions, which are rational style, intuition-impulse style and dependent style.

3 Relationship between risk perception and driving decision-making is that: risk perception affected drivers’ decision-making by mediated the tasks’ difficulty degree, the detection time before task and the execution time of decision-making. Its influence and prediction on decision-making indicates that:

(1) In the stage of identifying decision-making problems, the processing methods of those drivers, who are good at avoiding risk and willing to take risk, are the same, according to how to identify the sources of risk. In the tasks of low risk, drivers mainly take enlightening strategy; in the tasks of high risk, drivers mainly take the principle of “satisfying the multi-attribute utility theory”.

(2) In the stage of decision-making processing. In the tasks of low risk, Drivers, who are good at avoiding risk and willing to take risk, have no difference in the aspects of information extraction and processing, their detection time of risk source are the same as well. In the tasks of high risk, there is no difference between experienced and novice driers, however, novice drivers’ (who are willing to take risk) information extraction and processing time are longer than the experienced drivers.

(3) In the stage of implementing decisions, compared to the drivers who are good at avoiding risk, in order to avoid braking or deceleration, the drivers who are willing to take risk pay more attention to the periphery information of risk source. These results to their decision-making time are longer than the former ones.

(4) If not considering the risk level of task, the shorter the drivers’ processing time of risk source, the longer their time of implementing decisions. This indicates that these drivers’ decision-making style is more likely to be risky style.

(5) Taking gender and driving experience into consideration, the time that drivers spent on risk resource will affect older drivers’ decision-making, while the time of implementing decisions will affect female drivers’ decision-making.

4 Relationships between emotional state and decision-making is turned out that positive and negative emotion has different influence and predication.

(1) Emotional State Scale correspond to the requirements of psychology criteria, it has good application and can be used as a reliable and effective tool to measure drivers’ emotional state.

(2) In POMS, the higher the score of positive emotions, the higher the drivers’ willing to take risk. Taking gender and driving experience into consideration, negative emotion mainly affect novice drivers’ decision-making, while positive emotion mainly affect female drivers’ decision-making.

5 Relationships between decision-making style and driving decision-making is turned out that ational style and intuition-impulse style has different influence and predication.

In GDMS, the lower the score of rational style (the higher the score of intuition-impulse style) , the possibility to take risk are higher. Taking gender and driving experience into consideration, rational style mainly affect novice drivers’ decision-making, intuition-impulse style mainly affect male drivers’ decision-making, however, dependent style has no influence on decision-making.

6 Taking risk perception, emotional state and decision-making style into consideration, the mechanism which affect decision-making is: risk perception (processing time of risk resource, time of implementing decisions) is the most basic aspect of for the entire model, emotional state (positive emotions and negative emotions) changed by physical conditions and the driving environment, and decision-making style(rational style, intuition and impulse style)as a stable behavior, affect driving behavior of each driver by t the consolidated current from the information obtained, combined with previous experience of similar risks.

7 We formed a drivers’ risk perception scenario questionnaire, it had good reliability and validity. According to the three stage of decision-making, we measured drivers’ risk perception from risk detection, risk anticipation and risk reaction. It can reflect the characteristics of decision-making by analyzing the scores of the three dimensions. It’s turned out to be a useful tool to evaluate drivers’ risk perception.

8 The use of drivers’ risk perception scenario questionnaire on driver training can improve risk capability of the driver.

In summary, on the basis of analysis of China drivers’ characteristics of decision-making, this paper, firstly, provided some effective methods and tools to evaluate the relevant factors of decision-making. Among which, eye movements can be used to measure both the process of risk perception and decision-making, the revised version of General Decision-Making Style and Emotional State Scale can be used to measure drivers’ decision-making styles and characteristics of their emotional state. Secondly, we establisheda model, which included risk perception, emotional state and decision-making style, to provide a more comprehensive theoretical framework to predict decision-making, thus making it of great significance. Finally, we formed a drivers’ risk perception questionnaire to improve drivers’ decision-making. It can not only be used as an effective tool to assess drivers’ risk perception, but also provide fruitful data to improve decision-making, at the same time, it can reflect the characteristics of driving decision-making indirectly. Above all, these provided a new perspective to improve drivers’ risk perception and decision-making, which make them have great value.

Keywords: driver; driving decision-making; risk perception; emotional state;decision-making styles; improvements.

来源：陈晓晨.驾驶决策的特征及其影响因素研究[D].辽宁师范大学,2013.