Investigating the predictive validity of subjective and objective measures for general aviation pilots’ risk propensity

Yassmin Ebrahim, Brett Molesworth, Oleksandra Molloy 

Abstract：Pilots’ propensity to engage in risk can affect flight safety. Predictors of risk traditionally rely on subjective psychometric scales, with varying predictive validity. The aim of the current study is to investigate the efficacy of both subjective and objective measures (e.g., Electroencephalography – EEG) in predicting general aviation pilots’ risk propensity in a high-risk Go/No-Go flight task. A total of 16 pilots completed a battery of scales, along with a high-risk flight on a computer-based flight simulator while wearing an EEG. The results of a series of one-tailed Mann-Whitney U tests revealed pilots who declined (No-Go) the flight had a narrower EEG theta asymmetry in the Rostral brain region between their right and left-brain hemispheres compared to the accepted (Go) pilots. Differences were also noted between pilot groups on the psychometric scales of Locus of Control, and the Total Score and Disinhibition factors on the Sensation Seeking Scale. Pilots who also declined (No-Go) the flight, had a shorter deliberation time when making this decision. The neurobiological data from the EEG support the use of certain psychometric scales in predicting pilots’ risk propensity. These findings have implications on pilots training and selection.

Keywords: Aviation; Decision-making; Risk; Human Factors; EGG; Risk-taking; Pilots

主观与客观测量方式在预测通用航空飞行员风险承担倾向中的效度研究

摘要：飞行员的风险承担倾向可能影响飞行安全。传统上对风险的预测多依赖主观心理测量量表，其预测效度存在差异。本研究旨在探讨主观测量（如心理量表）与客观测量（如脑电图 EEG）在预测通用航空飞行员在高风险“执行/中止”（Go/No-Go）飞行任务中风险承担倾向方面的有效性。共有16名飞行员完成了一系列心理量表测评，并在佩戴脑电图设备的情况下，参与了一项基于计算机的高风险飞行模拟任务。一系列单尾Mann-Whitney U检验结果显示，选择中止飞行任务（No-Go）的飞行员在前脑区域的左右脑半球之间的θ波脑电不对称性较小，与选择执行任务（Go）的飞行员存在显著差异。两组飞行员在心理量表得分上也表现出差异，具体体现在“控制点量表”（Locus of Control）以及“感觉寻求量表”（Sensation Seeking Scale）中的总分与“去抑制因子”（Disinhibition factor）上。此外，拒绝执行飞行任务（No-Go）的飞行员在做出决策时的思考时间更短。脑电图的神经生理数据支持某些心理量表在预测飞行员风险承担倾向方面的应用。这些发现对于飞行员的选拔与培训具有重要意义。

关键词：航空；决策；风险；人因；EGG；风险承担倾向；飞行员

来源：Ebrahim, Y., Molesworth, B., & Molloy, O. (2025). Investigating the predictive validity of subjective and objective measures for general aviation pilots’ risk propensity. Safety Science, 186, 106818.