航线飞行员的风险倾向特征研究

摘 要：随着航空运输量的不断增长， 不断减少不安全事件及飞行事故的发生、不断降低飞机运行安全水平的风险成为民航业持续追求的目标。航线飞行员作为民航安全的“最后一道防线”， 其操作行为对飞行安全产生直接影响，而在相同的飞行条件下，飞行员的人格特质与社会认知因素中的风险认知变量将对飞行安全产生影响。 因此从航线飞行员的风险心理角度出发，研究风险心理变量对飞行员风险操作行为的影响， 挖掘飞行员的风险倾向特征， 对安全关口的前移及飞机运行安全水平的提升都具有重要的现实意义。通过事故倾向性理论的引入，提出航线飞行员群体中存在“风险型飞行员”的假设，然后分别对两种机型的飞行员的超限次数及超限率的分布进行统计及常规的分布检验，并分别对不同超限率水平的飞行员的平均超限偏差值及飞行员不同时期的超限率做了对比分析。 研究结果表明：超限事件的发生偏向于某一部分飞行员，飞行员群体不同时期的超限率之间存在显著的正相关关系，且高超限率的飞行员的平均超限偏差值显著高于低超限率飞行员， 即航线飞行员群体中存在“风险型飞行员”。在文献分析的基础上设计一份航线飞行员风险心理测试量表，并对部分量表（风险容忍量表）的飞行情境描述做了语言修订。以线上测量与线下测量两种方式对国内两家航空公司的飞行员的风险心理变量实施测量。 运用方差分析与相关性分析研究风险心理变量对航线飞行员超限行为的影响。采用聚类分析方法将飞行员分为三组： A 组（低风险容忍、高风险知觉、中-低危险态度）、 B 组（中-低风险容忍、中-高风险知觉、中危险态度）、 C 组（中-高风险容忍、中-低风险知觉、中危险态度）。运用多元方差分析方法分析各组飞行员在着陆阶段的四项关键参数上的差异。结果表明：危险态度对飞行员的严重超限行为有显著正向影响；风险容忍与危险态度较高、风险知觉较低的飞行员会以相对较大的垂直加速度和俯仰角，相对较小的接地距离着陆。结合现有的飞行品质监控标准， 以接地速度、接地俯仰角、接地垂直加速度、 50ft至接地距离四个飞行参数的偏差作为着陆风险操作倾向评价指标，应用熵权法和正态云理论构建了基于飞行数据正态云的着陆操作风险评价模型。实例验证结果表明：该模型通过比较待评价对象与着陆操作风险等级之间正态云相似度，可实现航线飞行员的着陆风险操作倾向评价，方法的应用为航空公司安全管理决策提供依据。
关键词： 航线飞行员；超限事件；风险心理变量； QAR 数据； 风险操作倾向

Study on the Characteristics of Risk Propensity of Airline Pilots

Abstract: With the continuous growth of air transportation capacity, decreasing the occurrences of unsafe events and flight accidents as well as reducing the risk of aircraft operation has been the goals pursued constantly by civil aviation industry. As the last line of defense for civil aviation safety, airline pilots' operant behaviors have a direct impact on flight safety. Besides, under the same flight conditions, the risk risk cognitive variables of pilots' personality traits and social cognitive factors will have an impact on flight safety. Therefore, it has important practical significance in the forward shift of safety juncture and improvement of safety operation of aircraft to study the effect of risk psychological variables on pilots' risky operation behaviors, extract feature of pilots' risk propensity from the perspective of airline pilots' risk cognitions.Through the introduction of accident proneness theory, the hypothesis that "risky pilots" exist in the group of airline pilots was proposed, then statistics and conventional tests of the distribution of pilots' exceedance times and exceedance rates, including pilots driving two types of aircraft, were conducted, and the average exceedance deviations of pilots in different level of exceedance rate as well as pilots' exceedance rates in different periods were contrasted and analysed respectively.The results indicate that exceedance events tend to a certain part of pilots. Besides, the average exceedance deviation of pilots with high exceedance rates is significantly higher than pilots' with low exceedance rates, and there is a significant correlation among exceedance rates in different periods, that is, the "risky pilots" do exist in the group of airline transport pilots.Based on the analysis of literature, a risk psychological total scale of airline pilots was designed, including airline pilots' risk tolerance scale, airline pilots' risk perception scale and airline pilots' hazardous attitude scale, and the language revision was made to the flying scenes of part of scale (airline pilots' risk tolerance scale). The combination of two modes of on-line and off-line measurement was used to measure the risk propensity variables of the pilots in two airlines in China. ANOVA and correlation analysis were conducted to study the effect of risk cognitive variables on airline pilots' exceedance behaviors.Cluster analysis methods was adopted to divide the pilots into three groups: group A (low risk tolerance, high risk perception and medium-low hazardous attitude) and group B (medium-low risk tolerance, medium-high risk perception and medium hazardous attitude) and group C (medium-high risk tolerance, medium-low risk perception and medium risk attitude). MANOVA was used to analyse the difference of four key parameters during the landing, the research results show that the hazardous attitude has a significant positive effect on the severe exceedance behaviors of pilots. Compared with the pilots with low risk tolerance, high risk perception and medium hazardous attitude, those with medium-higher risk tolerance, medium-lower risk perception and medium hazardous attitude would land with relatively larger vertical acceleration and larger pitch angle. Besides, they would have significantly shorter touchdown distance.With the existing standard of Flight Operations Quality Assurance, using the deviation among four flight parameters of the Ground Speed Touchdown, Pitch Angle Touchdown, Vertical Acceleration Touchdown and Touchdown Distance as the indexes for landing risk operation propensity evaluation, entropy weight method and normal cloud theory were applied to construct the model of landing risk operation propensity evaluation based on normal cloud of flight data. A case study show that the model could achieve the landing risk operation propensity evaluation of airline pilots by comparing the normal cloud similarity between the evaluated object and the landing operation risk level, and the application of the method provides a basis for airline to make safety management decisions.
Keywords: Airline pilots; Exceedance events; Risk cognitive variables, QAR data; Risk operation proneness

文章来源：任勇.航线飞行员的风险倾向特征研究[D].中国民航大学,2018.